InFocus: Addressing the assassination of Charlie Kirk
On behalf of Forward Observer, our prayers and support goes out to Charlie’s family. Probably like you, we’re working through complex emotions (initial disbelief followed by sadness and then anger) over yesterday’s murder of conservative commentator and political youth leader Charlie Kirk. As always after a national tragedy, take time to process grief and talk with others.
“What’s next?” is the intelligence question of the day. I’m working my way through this question and want to share my thought process with you.
First, I agree with much of the sentiment that “there’s no coming back from this.” It makes future political violence more likely, and there’s a good chance that it makes some political candidates targets in 2026. And, yes, I do believe that the United States remains on trajectory towards a domestic armed conflict.
The lead up to sustained violence in low intensity conflict (the outbreak) consists of three factors. (1) Fault lines are divides or tears in the social fabric. They can be political or ideological, racial, religious, socioeconomic, etc. These are the tectonic plates of low intensity conflict. (2) Next are accelerators, which turn up the social temperature by agitating or exploiting existing grievances. Accelerators of conflict heat up a pot of water that eventually, when hot enough, boils over. Or, in another analogy, shifting tectonic plates produce tremors. (3) The third factor is the trigger event, where so much pressure is built up in the social system that sustained violence erupts. This is the earthquake or pot of water that boils over.
As of this morning, I don’t think enough pressure is built up to have an eruption of armed violence, so the murder of Charlie Kirk is more likely an accelerator than a trigger. Low level armed violence remains likely, however. I say this with one caveat, below.
Second, I’ve seen the email received by conservative commentator Stephen Crowder, allegedly from an ATF agent, showing that the shooter harbored pro-trans and anti-fascist ideology. A screenshot of an internal message alleging that law enforcement recovered a Mauser .30-06 rifle and rifle rounds engraved with “transgender and anti-fascist” messages. [source]
The veracity of this information is unknown, but it would not surprise me. It would be consistent with expectations. This is the most credible theory I’ve seen so far, although I encourage everyone to wait for the facts to come out. This is a single source report, which is inherently vulnerable. As always, we have considered multiple alternatives.
Third, if this report is verified, then we will see renewed national backlash against transgender ideology. The Department of Homeland Security or Federal Bureau of Investigation could designate a special category for transgender violent extremism, while the Department of Justice recalibrates their focus to left wing extremism. This should bring new political, social, and medical scrutiny, in addition to law enforcement attention.
Lastly, yesterday’s shooting and the risk of continued armed political violence underscores the need for intelligence and organization at the local level. I encourage you to investigate local political and social groups, especially those with alternative or extremist ideologies, or those that agitate around social issues that could produce political violence. Your goal is to gain awareness that these groups exist and determine the risk of localized violence.
I also encourage you to organize with like-minded community members and share information. It’s not inconceivable that under the right social conditions, we see organized political violence targeting provocative or unpopular political candidates in next year’s elections. On that note, it’s probably worth asking your county sheriff or police chief, in light of yesterday’s shooting and the potential fallout, how they’re preparing for possible armed political violence in the next election cycle.
Meanwhile, the Early Warning team will continue to stay on top of developments and provide our updated assessments in future reports.
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