by: Andy Stevens, LPNC

To date SB50 has passed both the NC Senate and NC House and was sent to Governor Stein, who vetoed it. The Senate successfully overrode the Governor’s veto, and the bill now awaits a veto override vote in the NC House. However, the House veto override vote is unlikely.

In a nutshell, there are far too many House Republicans unwilling to record their vote on the bill in order, in their eyes, to save their political careers. In other words, their personal needs come first, and constitutional rights and party platform principles come second.

The following table highlights what it will take for Republicans to retain the majority (NOT the supermajority) in the next election. This comes from the John Locke Civitas Partisan Index 2026 analysis. Introducing the 2026 Civitas Partisan Index:

Ted Davis, Jr (D20) and Stephen Ross (D63) are two of the “Lean Republican” districts who have opposed passage of SB50. Davis voted AGAINST the bill already while Ross was an excused vote on House passage. Davis announced November 17th, he would retire at the end of his current term (Dec ’26). Diane Wheatley (D43) is also in a “Lean Republican” district but did not vote for the bill when it passed on the floor of the House.

Jonathan Almond (D73), Alan Chesser (D25), Tricia Cotham (D105), Chris Humphrey (D12), and Jeff Zenger (D74) are in “Toss Up” districts where their futures are uncertain. ALL failed to vote for SB50 on the floor of the House and, notably, Rep. Cotham has a GRNC 0 evaluation based on her previous anti-gun votes in the past.

When SB50 passed in the House, there were 10 Representatives who did not vote on the record. SEVEN of the 10 are in these vulnerable seats.

Discounting Representative Jimmy Dixon (D04) who voted against the bill but is nevertheless in a “Safe” seat, immune to losing it, and Representative William D. Brisson (D22) who voted against the bill on the floor but allegedly now would vote to override the veto, there appears to be EIGHT Representatives opposed to taking the recorded vote for SB50 override in the mistaken hope that an unrecorded vote on the bill will salvage their reelection run. So, passage of SB50 override is unlikely with as many as NINE Republicans unwilling to vote to override the Governor’s veto in the hopes it salvages their reelection in November 2026.

From the Civitas Table on the first page, there are a total of 20 Republican seats in the “Toss Up” and “Lean Republican” categories. All these seats are in jeopardy, making the prospects for a near supermajority result in 2026 poor. Worse, the political prognosticators claim it’s not out of the question the House flips control to the Democrats in 2026.

What does this analysis really mean for Constitutional Carry for North Carolinians today?

Frankly, Constitutional Carry for NC is dead, dead, dead.

With so many Republican House Reps unwilling to vote for it believing such a vote would terminate their political careers there is no point for House Leadership to work a deal with the one or two Democrats it would take to make the override vote succeed. Why on earth would they even try under such circumstances? Even their own don’t want it.

Finally, the Civitas analysis indicates trouble in the NC Senate for 2026 as well. The Senate is in far better shape to retain a solid majority, but again the crystal ball gazers see perhaps 1-3 Republican districts lost. No more supermajority in the Senate after the 2026 election. At best, we’d need a Republican “Red Wave” in 2028 for any chance to have Constitutional Carry by the end of the decade.

Listen to this podcast and decide for yourself: John Locke’s Andy Jackson Maps… - Do Politics Better Podcast - Apple Podcasts

Late Breaking News!

The House is scheduled for one final 2025 Session on December 15th. One last opportunity for House Speaker Destin Hall, his leadership team, and the Republican House caucus to prove me wrong. Let’s see if they do it.

Rep. Ted Davis Jr. has just announced his retirement and has endorsed as his hand-picked successor current New Hanover County Commissioner Dane Scalise. Note: I’ve emailed Commissioner Scalise to see if he agrees or disagrees with Rep. Davis’s opposition to passage of SB50. To date he has not responded. It really doesn’t matter as Rep. Davis intends to serve out his term.

FINALLY, In the You Can’t Make This Stuff Up Dept:

As I was about to put this out to press, I received the following bit of information from a reliable source: It seems 2nd Amendment supporter, bill sponsor and Chairman of the House Freedom Caucus Representative Keith Kidwell (D79) has been notified that he will be having a, get this, a Primary opponent sponsored by none other than fellow Republican Representative Jimmy Dixon (D04). Dixon, of course, is one of the NO votes on the SB50 veto override. While the two may differ from other pieces of legislation, this new development certainly cements the fracture between those who support the SB50 override and those who do not.

I understand this is the message Representative Kidwell received:

I’ve been saying publicly for a long time that our new Speaker Destin Hall has been under a test since assuming his office. It now appears his caucus is suffering from a lack of effective leadership. The Democrats, although in the minority, have the discipline to stand together and to SHOW UP AND VOTE, while the Republicans tolerate excused absences and diabolical plots against themselves. We need the Speaker and his leadership team to guarantee 71 unified votes that it appears they’re unable to produce. I also know that Representative Kidwell was and may still be interested in the Speakership himself. Enacting Constitutional Carry would be a feather in HIS cap as he has been the bill sponsor of the House version of SB50 for several sessions now. Is there a coordinated plot to not only prevent enactment of SB50 but also kneecap and remove our strongest gun rights supporter in the House?

I asked Representative Keith Kidwell to respond if he wished. Here is his reply:

We’ll see what happens. Filing for the 2026 Election Primary opens on December 1st and runs through December 19th. I say again:

Constitutional Carry for NC is dead, dead, dead.

You can always Call Speaker Destin Hall’s Office at (919) 733-3451 and tell him to PROVE ME WRONG!

Andrew J. (Andy) Stevens

King, North Carolina

[email protected]

Andrew J. (Andy) Stevens has been a well-known, outspoken North Carolina Gun Rights Advocate for over 15 years now. He formerly held leadership roles as GRNC’s Director of Legislative Affairs, VP of Operations, and member of the GRNC Board of Directors. He once was GOA’s NC State Director as well. Mr. Stevens resigned his leadership roles with both organizations in January 2024. He has avidly followed gun rights legislation since 2013 and SB50 (which would make North Carolina a Constitutional Carry state) since its introduction earlier this year. He is a passionate advocate for its passage and enactment into law.