by: Dan Johnson, LPNC
Much of politics is about predicting the future.
Choosing what issues to focus on, choosing who to reach out to, and choosing when to run for office have a bigger impact on your success as a candidate than all the hard work you can put in, and that gets worse the higher of an office you run for.
If you had correctly guessed that the mood of the country in 2016 would be righteous anger, a special hatred towards DC and its politicians, then you would have come out on top running a campaign that tapped into that anger.
Likewise, if you had correctly guessed that the mood of the country in 2020 would be a disgust with chaos, a desire for a return to normalcy, and that the level of stress that the average American felt that was worse than the beneficial economic policies of the Don, your campaign would have gotten a major boost.
Most everyone, except rabid partisans, can see it when it is happening. Kamala Harris is rising, not because of her policies, positions, or a good debate performance, but because the country is so thrilled to not have a contest between two old men with dementia. Predicting it, however, gives you a chance to prepare your campaign to take advantage of it.
With that said, here are some Macro-Political trends Libertarians should be aware of.
There’s a cease-fire in American rhetoric, not a peace deal.
The Biden campaign in 2020 and the Harris campaign now have brought with them a seeming return to normalcy in politics. Both campaigns avoided touting radical progressive agendas and focused more on heartland issues. However, the normalcy is a mirage.
The issues underlying the Charlottesville, January 6th, and Black Lives matter protests and riots haven’t been resolved. The issues underlying the shooting of several at a Republican Congressional baseball game, including Rep. Steve Scalise, have not been resolved. The recent shooting of Donald Trump proves that.
You cannot resolve political violence without resolving the issues that caused it in the first place. Inflation is making American consumers pay 20-30% more just to live the life they lived 10 years ago. Online censorship is still rampant. Technology is still advancing fast. Once the hope fades and the underlying economics takes their toll, people will be angry again. And this time, they will burn even hotter, as revenge for the false hope that is being granted to them now.
Political tribalism is going to get worse, not better.
Humans are naturally social creatures - to the extent that we find it difficult to work with others who don't share many similar values. The old bonds that held us together - nation, freedom, opportunity - they are no longer working. Less young people go to church, where they once got their values, than ever before. We are less tied into our neighbors and have less in common with them when we do talk.
Historically, we have gotten our social identity from two very large tribes, church and nation. With these two no longer being sufficient, a lot of people will default to their core political identity in other areas of their lives.
You already see this happening with for profit companies dedicated to one ideology (Ultra Right Beer, Angel Films), nonprofits (Mutual Aid Societies, LGBT-exclusionary adoption agencies) and you will see it more as the people someone is most comfortable with are those who share their political identity.
You also see this with trends of where people choose to live. More than the economic opportunity, more than the natural beauty or the weather, politics is becoming how we decide where we live. As it becomes more a part of our core identity, it becomes more a part of making us, us.
Political identity is not going away, despite the rise of independent voters. Political identity is just transcending party.
We are transitioning from a Big/Small government divide to a Good/Bad government divide.
This shift has been evident in the data for a while now. The National Citizenship Survey has asked people what it means to be a good citizen for decades. For the first few years of its life, it was clear that there was a strict divide in America between those who believed in big and those who believed in small government. I.e. Liberals and Conservatives.
However, millennials and other generations don’t see the government as inherently evil, or inherently good. We see the government as having a place, and being good at some things and being bad at others.
This means the old rhetoric of “government bad” appeals to a smaller, and smaller group of people.
We must instead recognize what government is bad *at* and present ways that those things can be addressed without using the force of the state.
A perfect example is the Cajun Navy.
The Cajun Navy started as a ragtag band of Louisanans who were sick of FEMA leaving their people to die during floods. They took their shallow bottom boats and saved them, lots of them. When they helped their neighbors in Houston during Hurricane Harvey, they rescued over 3,000 people for 1/100th the price of the U.S. Coast Guard.
We need policies and practices that allow more Cajun Navies and less Hurricane Katrinas.
If you’d ask me, that's what Libertarians should be advocating for.
Dan Johnson was the Communications Director for the Lars Mapstead campaign, and is an active Libertarian in North Carolina, where he lives with his Fiance’ and two children, Alex and Leo (+1 on the way).
Showing 1 reaction
Sign in with